Hercules vs Juventud Torremolinos CF

20 Sep 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +4.0 pp

Hercules

Juventud Torremolinos CF

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 59.8% DRAW 24.9% AWAY 15.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 55.9% 1.66 DRAW 26.2% 3.55 AWAY 18.0% 5.17

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Hercules relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 59.8% win probability, compared with 55.9% implied by the market. The 4.0 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Hercules has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Hercules Juventud Torremolinos CF

Shots 12.8 · On target 4.8 Shots 7.3 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours Hercules, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Hercules Juventud Torremolinos CF

Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 13.5 · On target allowed 6.3

Hercules has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Hercules Juventud Torremolinos CF

The combined recent performance profile favours Hercules.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Hercules = (0.0%)

Juventud Torremolinos CF ↑ +0.09 (+1.7%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.