Modena vs Empoli

20 Sep 2026 · 19:30

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.6 pp

Modena

Empoli

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 66.9% DRAW 23.0% AWAY 10.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 62.3% 1.60 DRAW 24.9% 4.01 AWAY 12.8% 7.81

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Modena clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 66.9% win probability, compared with 62.3% implied by the market. The 4.6 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Modena has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Modena Empoli

Shots 20.3 · On target 6.8 Shots 8.8 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours Modena, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Modena Empoli

Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 13.5 · On target allowed 4.3

Modena has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Modena Empoli

The combined recent performance profile favours Modena.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Modena ↓ -0.08 (-4.8%)

Empoli ↑ +2.40 (+44.4%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.