Alianza FC vs Municipal Limeno

20 Sep 2026 · 23:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.4 pp

Alianza FC

Municipal Limeno

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 38.9% DRAW 30.1% AWAY 31.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 42.8% 2.18 DRAW 29.6% 3.15 AWAY 27.7% 3.37

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Municipal Limeno relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 31.1% win probability, compared with 27.7% implied by the market. The 3.4 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Municipal Limeno has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Alianza FC Municipal Limeno

Shots 11.5 · On target 3.3 Shots 15.8 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output favours Municipal Limeno, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Alianza FC Municipal Limeno

Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 1.8

Municipal Limeno has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Alianza FC Municipal Limeno

The combined recent performance profile favours Municipal Limeno.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Alianza FC ↓ -0.12 (-5.2%)

Municipal Limeno ↑ +0.57 (+20.4%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.