Alianza FC vs CD INCA Aruba

27 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.1 pp

Alianza FC

CD INCA Aruba

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 66.6% DRAW 20.2% AWAY 13.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 65.5% 1.44 DRAW 21.0% 4.50 AWAY 13.5% 7.02

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Alianza FC

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Alianza FC CD INCA Aruba

Shots 11.0 · On target 4.5 Shots 9.0 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Alianza FC, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Alianza FC CD INCA Aruba

Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 6.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Alianza FC CD INCA Aruba

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Alianza FC ↓ -0.27 (-15.6%)

CD INCA Aruba ↑ +2.62 (+59.5%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.