Parana vs Paranavai

27 Sep 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.2 pp

Parana

Paranavai

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 54.3% DRAW 26.3% AWAY 19.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 53.1% 1.76 DRAW 26.7% 3.50 AWAY 20.2% 4.63

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Parana

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Parana Paranavai

Shots 8.8 · On target 3.5 Shots 6.5 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours Parana, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Parana Paranavai

Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 4.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Parana Paranavai

The combined recent performance profile favours Parana.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Parana ↑ +0.04 (+2.1%)

Paranavai ↑ +0.63 (+15.8%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.