Athletico Paranaense B vs Sao Joseense

03 Oct 2026 · 00:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.9 pp

Athletico Paranaense B

Sao Joseense

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 50.0% DRAW 24.7% AWAY 25.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 46.2% 1.95 DRAW 25.7% 3.50 AWAY 28.1% 3.20

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Athletico Paranaense B relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 50.0% win probability, compared with 46.2% implied by the market. The 3.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Athletico Paranaense B

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Athletico Paranaense B Sao Joseense

Shots 5.3 · On target 2.8 Shots 6.5 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Athletico Paranaense B Sao Joseense

Shots allowed 3.0 · On target allowed 1.0 Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 5.0

Athletico Paranaense B has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Athletico Paranaense B Sao Joseense

The combined recent performance profile favours Athletico Paranaense B.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Athletico Paranaense B = (0.0%)

Sao Joseense = (0.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.