Haiti vs Costa Rica

28 Sep 2026 · 01:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.6 pp

Haiti

Costa Rica

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 41.6% DRAW 26.4% AWAY 31.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 39.1% 2.44 DRAW 26.9% 3.54 AWAY 34.0% 2.80

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Haiti relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 41.6% win probability, compared with 39.1% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Haiti

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Haiti Costa Rica

Shots 10.3 · On target 2.0 Shots 3.5 · On target 1.5

Recent attacking output favours Haiti, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Haiti Costa Rica

Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 4.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Haiti Costa Rica

The combined recent performance profile favours Haiti.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

No movement data

Haiti —

Costa Rica —

No stored odds movement is available for this match.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.