Bahamas vs Saint Martin

23 Sep 2026 · 22:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.9 pp

Bahamas

Saint Martin

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 4.3% DRAW 10.9% AWAY 84.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 4.5% 21.00 DRAW 11.6% 8.20 AWAY 83.9% 1.13

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Saint Martin has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Bahamas Saint Martin

Shots 1.5 · On target 0.8 Shots 8.0 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours Saint Martin, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Bahamas Saint Martin

Shots allowed 5.5 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 4.0 · On target allowed 2.0

Saint Martin has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Bahamas Saint Martin

The combined recent performance profile favours Saint Martin.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Bahamas ↑ +17.45 (+491.5%)

Saint Martin ↓ -0.74 (-39.6%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.