Aruba vs Antigua & Barbuda

24 Sep 2026 · 01:00

OPPORTUNITY

STRONG EDGE HOME +7.9 pp

Aruba

Antigua & Barbuda

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 47.3% DRAW 25.4% AWAY 27.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 39.4% 2.38 DRAW 26.5% 3.54 AWAY 34.1% 2.75

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Aruba substantially higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 47.3% win probability, compared with 39.4% implied by the market. The 7.9 percentage-point difference indicates a strong divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Aruba has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Aruba Antigua & Barbuda

Shots 6.3 · On target 3.5 Shots 2.8 · On target 1.3

Recent attacking output favours Aruba, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Aruba Antigua & Barbuda

Shots allowed 4.3 · On target allowed 1.0 Shots allowed 15.3 · On target allowed 5.5

Aruba has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Aruba Antigua & Barbuda

The combined recent performance profile favours Aruba.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Aruba ↓ -0.60 (-20.0%)

Antigua & Barbuda ↑ +0.63 (+31.3%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.