Barbados vs Bermuda

03 Oct 2026 · 02:00

OPPORTUNITY

STRONG EDGE HOME +6.8 pp

Barbados

Bermuda

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 57.2% DRAW 20.9% AWAY 21.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 50.4% 1.86 DRAW 22.9% 4.10 AWAY 26.8% 3.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Barbados substantially higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 57.2% win probability, compared with 50.4% implied by the market. The 6.8 percentage-point difference indicates a strong divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Bermuda

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Barbados Bermuda

Shots 7.5 · On target 3.3 Shots 8.3 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Barbados Bermuda

Shots allowed 4.8 · On target allowed 1.5 Shots allowed 16.8 · On target allowed 8.5

Barbados has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Barbados Bermuda

The combined recent performance profile favours Barbados.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Barbados ↓ -0.16 (-7.9%)

Bermuda ↓ -0.09 (-2.4%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.