Saint Lucia vs Guadeloupe

02 Oct 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.2 pp

Saint Lucia

Guadeloupe

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 32.2% DRAW 24.3% AWAY 43.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 32.7% 2.91 DRAW 25.0% 3.80 AWAY 42.3% 2.25

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Guadeloupe has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Saint Lucia Guadeloupe

Shots 5.5 · On target 1.8 Shots 6.0 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Guadeloupe, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Saint Lucia Guadeloupe

Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 5.5 · On target allowed 1.5

Guadeloupe has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Saint Lucia Guadeloupe

The combined recent performance profile favours Guadeloupe.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Saint Lucia ↓ -0.13 (-4.2%)

Guadeloupe ↑ +0.03 (+1.4%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.