Saint Lucia vs Bermuda

29 Sep 2026 · 02:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.6 pp

Saint Lucia

Bermuda

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 32.9% DRAW 28.1% AWAY 39.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 30.3% 3.10 DRAW 28.0% 3.35 AWAY 41.7% 2.25

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Saint Lucia relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 32.9% win probability, compared with 30.3% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Saint Lucia has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Saint Lucia Bermuda

Shots 3.5 · On target 0.8 Shots 1.3 · On target 0.8

Recent attacking output favours Saint Lucia, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Saint Lucia Bermuda

Shots allowed 5.8 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 4.0

Saint Lucia has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Saint Lucia Bermuda

The combined recent performance profile favours Saint Lucia.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Saint Lucia ↑ +0.61 (+24.5%)

Bermuda ↓ -0.29 (-11.4%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.