El Salvador vs Jamaica

03 Oct 2026 · 04:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.2 pp

El Salvador

Jamaica

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 28.6% DRAW 27.2% AWAY 44.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 28.5% 3.35 DRAW 27.4% 3.49 AWAY 44.1% 2.17

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Jamaica

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

El Salvador Jamaica

Shots 8.8 · On target 1.5 Shots 8.0 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours Jamaica, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

El Salvador Jamaica

Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 3.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

El Salvador Jamaica

The combined recent performance profile favours Jamaica.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

El Salvador ↑ +0.71 (+25.8%)

Jamaica ↓ -0.33 (-13.2%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.