Suriname vs Guatemala

03 Oct 2026 · 00:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.4 pp

Suriname

Guatemala

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 48.0% DRAW 23.7% AWAY 28.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 44.7% 2.16 DRAW 24.7% 3.91 AWAY 30.7% 3.15

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Suriname relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 48.0% win probability, compared with 44.7% implied by the market. The 3.4 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Guatemala

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Suriname Guatemala

Shots 5.3 · On target 2.8 Shots 8.8 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Guatemala, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Suriname Guatemala

Shots allowed 5.8 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 15.5 · On target allowed 4.3

Suriname has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Suriname Guatemala

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Suriname ↓ -0.36 (-13.8%)

Guatemala ↑ +0.78 (+32.6%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.