Guatemala vs El Salvador

29 Sep 2026 · 04:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +4.1 pp

Guatemala

El Salvador

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 43.0% DRAW 27.3% AWAY 29.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 47.3% 2.01 DRAW 27.0% 3.52 AWAY 25.7% 3.70

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates El Salvador clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 29.8% win probability, compared with 25.7% implied by the market. The 4.1 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Guatemala

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Guatemala El Salvador

Shots 6.3 · On target 2.5 Shots 6.0 · On target 1.5

Recent attacking output favours Guatemala, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Guatemala El Salvador

Shots allowed 18.8 · On target allowed 6.3 Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 1.8

El Salvador has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Guatemala El Salvador

The combined recent performance profile favours El Salvador.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Guatemala ↓ -0.12 (-5.7%)

El Salvador ↑ +0.85 (+28.8%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.