Serra Macaense vs FC Rio de Janeiro

27 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.1 pp

Serra Macaense

FC Rio de Janeiro

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 62.4% DRAW 21.0% AWAY 16.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 63.3% 1.45 DRAW 21.2% 4.33 AWAY 15.5% 5.94

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: FC Rio de Janeiro

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Serra Macaense FC Rio de Janeiro

Shots 1.3 · On target 0.0 Shots 6.5 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours FC Rio de Janeiro, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Serra Macaense FC Rio de Janeiro

Shots allowed 4.0 · On target allowed 1.8 Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 2.5

Serra Macaense has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Serra Macaense FC Rio de Janeiro

The combined recent performance profile favours FC Rio de Janeiro.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Serra Macaense ↑ +0.00 (+0.3%)

FC Rio de Janeiro ↑ +0.94 (+18.8%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.