7 de Abril vs Friburguense

02 Oct 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.0 pp

7 de Abril

Friburguense

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 32.1% DRAW 24.2% AWAY 43.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 32.4% 2.94 DRAW 24.9% 3.83 AWAY 42.7% 2.23

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Friburguense

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

7 de Abril Friburguense

Shots 13.3 · On target 5.5 Shots 13.8 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

7 de Abril Friburguense

Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 2.0

Friburguense has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

7 de Abril Friburguense

The combined recent performance profile favours Friburguense.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

7 de Abril ↑ +0.06 (+2.2%)

Friburguense ↑ +0.08 (+3.7%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.