Monterrey (W) vs Club America (W)

03 Oct 2026 · 05:00

OPPORTUNITY

STRONG EDGE HOME +7.6 pp

Monterrey (W)

Club America (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 36.4% DRAW 23.1% AWAY 40.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 28.7% 3.35 DRAW 23.3% 4.13 AWAY 48.0% 2.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Monterrey (W) substantially higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 36.4% win probability, compared with 28.7% implied by the market. The 7.6 percentage-point difference indicates a strong divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Monterrey (W) has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Monterrey (W) Club America (W)

Shots 22.0 · On target 13.3 Shots 13.3 · On target 6.3

Recent attacking output favours Monterrey (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Monterrey (W) Club America (W)

Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 4.0

Monterrey (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Monterrey (W) Club America (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Monterrey (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Monterrey (W) ↑ +0.30 (+9.7%)

Club America (W) ↓ -0.02 (-1.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.