Unam Pumas (W) vs Tigres UANL (W)

03 Oct 2026 · 03:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.4 pp

Unam Pumas (W)

Tigres UANL (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 27.1% DRAW 21.3% AWAY 51.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 25.8% 3.75 DRAW 22.0% 4.39 AWAY 52.2% 1.85

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Tigres UANL (W)

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Unam Pumas (W) Tigres UANL (W)

Shots 9.3 · On target 4.0 Shots 15.3 · On target 7.3

Recent attacking output favours Tigres UANL (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Unam Pumas (W) Tigres UANL (W)

Shots allowed 5.8 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 5.3

Unam Pumas (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Unam Pumas (W) Tigres UANL (W)

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Unam Pumas (W) ↑ +0.85 (+29.3%)

Tigres UANL (W) ↓ -0.19 (-9.4%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.