Necaxa (W) vs Toluca (W)

29 Sep 2026 · 03:06

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.6 pp

Necaxa (W)

Toluca (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 4.7% DRAW 5.1% AWAY 90.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 4.2% 23.00 DRAW 5.7% 16.90 AWAY 90.1% 1.07

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Toluca (W)

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Necaxa (W) Toluca (W)

Shots 6.5 · On target 3.0 Shots 11.3 · On target 5.8

Recent attacking output favours Toluca (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Necaxa (W) Toluca (W)

Shots allowed 17.5 · On target allowed 8.8 Shots allowed 19.8 · On target allowed 9.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Necaxa (W) Toluca (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Toluca (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Necaxa (W) ↑ +8.00 (+53.3%)

Toluca (W) ↓ -0.01 (-0.9%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.