Santos Laguna (W) vs Cruz Azul (W)

22 Sep 2026 · 03:06

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.5 pp

Santos Laguna (W)

Cruz Azul (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 27.8% DRAW 25.0% AWAY 47.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 25.4% 3.70 DRAW 25.0% 3.75 AWAY 49.6% 1.89

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Santos Laguna (W)

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Santos Laguna (W) Cruz Azul (W)

Shots 9.0 · On target 4.8 Shots 5.5 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output favours Santos Laguna (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Santos Laguna (W) Cruz Azul (W)

Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 3.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Santos Laguna (W) Cruz Azul (W)

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Santos Laguna (W) ↓ -0.40 (-9.8%)

Cruz Azul (W) ↑ +0.28 (+17.2%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.