Toluca (W) vs Tigres UANL (W)

22 Sep 2026 · 02:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.7 pp

Toluca (W)

Tigres UANL (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 27.9% DRAW 24.7% AWAY 47.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 30.7% 3.13 DRAW 25.6% 3.75 AWAY 43.7% 2.20

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Tigres UANL (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 47.4% win probability, compared with 43.7% implied by the market. The 3.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Tigres UANL (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Toluca (W) Tigres UANL (W)

Shots 9.8 · On target 5.5 Shots 13.3 · On target 6.8

Recent attacking output favours Tigres UANL (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Toluca (W) Tigres UANL (W)

Shots allowed 17.3 · On target allowed 7.0 Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 4.0

Tigres UANL (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Toluca (W) Tigres UANL (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Tigres UANL (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Toluca (W) ↓ -0.41 (-11.5%)

Tigres UANL (W) ↑ +0.30 (+15.8%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.