Blumenau EC vs Marcilio Dias

26 Sep 2026 · 22:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.7 pp

Blumenau EC

Marcilio Dias

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 30.1% DRAW 29.7% AWAY 40.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 30.9% 3.07 DRAW 29.6% 3.20 AWAY 39.5% 2.40

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Marcilio Dias

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Blumenau EC Marcilio Dias

Shots 10.3 · On target 3.0 Shots 7.5 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Blumenau EC Marcilio Dias

Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 5.3 · On target allowed 2.5

Marcilio Dias has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Blumenau EC Marcilio Dias

The combined recent performance profile favours Marcilio Dias.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Blumenau EC ↑ +0.52 (+20.2%)

Marcilio Dias ↓ -0.15 (-5.9%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.