Hercilio Luz vs Nacao

26 Sep 2026 · 23:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.7 pp

Hercilio Luz

Nacao

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 77.3% DRAW 16.9% AWAY 5.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 73.6% 1.29 DRAW 18.9% 5.00 AWAY 7.4% 12.70

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Hercilio Luz relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 77.3% win probability, compared with 73.6% implied by the market. The 3.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Hercilio Luz has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Hercilio Luz Nacao

Shots 11.8 · On target 5.5 Shots 7.0 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Hercilio Luz, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Hercilio Luz Nacao

Shots allowed 5.8 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 16.5 · On target allowed 7.5

Hercilio Luz has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Hercilio Luz Nacao

The combined recent performance profile favours Hercilio Luz.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Hercilio Luz = (0.0%)

Nacao ↑ +5.70 (+81.4%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.