Joinville vs Barra FC

26 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.5 pp

Joinville

Barra FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 41.0% DRAW 28.1% AWAY 30.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 41.4% 2.25 DRAW 28.2% 3.30 AWAY 30.4% 3.07

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Barra FC

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Joinville Barra FC

Shots 4.8 · On target 3.0 Shots 8.5 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output favours Barra FC, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Joinville Barra FC

Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 4.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Joinville Barra FC

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Joinville ↓ -0.20 (-8.2%)

Barra FC ↑ +0.47 (+18.1%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.