Santa Catarina vs Figueirense

20 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.3 pp

Santa Catarina

Figueirense

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 35.7% DRAW 29.0% AWAY 35.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 35.4% 2.62 DRAW 29.0% 3.20 AWAY 35.6% 2.61

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Figueirense

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Santa Catarina Figueirense

Shots 12.8 · On target 5.5 Shots 16.0 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Santa Catarina Figueirense

Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 4.3

Santa Catarina has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Santa Catarina Figueirense

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Santa Catarina ↑ +0.09 (+3.6%)

Figueirense ↑ +0.11 (+4.4%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.