CA Metropolitano vs Figueirense

27 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.1 pp

CA Metropolitano

Figueirense

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 28.9% DRAW 27.5% AWAY 43.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 28.8% 3.26 DRAW 27.6% 3.40 AWAY 43.6% 2.15

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Figueirense

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

CA Metropolitano Figueirense

Shots 15.8 · On target 7.8 Shots 18.0 · On target 6.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

CA Metropolitano Figueirense

Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 3.5

Figueirense has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

CA Metropolitano Figueirense

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

CA Metropolitano ↑ +0.36 (+12.4%)

Figueirense = (0.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.