Duque de Caxias FC vs Niteroiense

26 Sep 2026 · 19:45

OPPORTUNITY

Duque de Caxias FC

Niteroiense

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 40.4% DRAW 32.9% AWAY 26.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 40.9% 2.30 DRAW 32.2% 2.92 AWAY 26.9% 3.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Duque de Caxias FC

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Duque de Caxias FC Niteroiense

Shots 9.8 · On target 5.8 Shots 7.5 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours Duque de Caxias FC, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Duque de Caxias FC Niteroiense

Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 2.8

Niteroiense has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Duque de Caxias FC Niteroiense

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Duque de Caxias FC ↑ +0.30 (+15.0%)

Niteroiense = (0.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.