US Folgore Caratese vs Giana Erminio

20 Sep 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.3 pp

US Folgore Caratese

Giana Erminio

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 41.3% DRAW 30.9% AWAY 27.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 41.0% 2.32 DRAW 30.7% 3.10 AWAY 28.4% 3.35

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: US Folgore Caratese

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

US Folgore Caratese Giana Erminio

Shots 11.8 · On target 4.5 Shots 14.5 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

US Folgore Caratese Giana Erminio

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 4.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

US Folgore Caratese Giana Erminio

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

US Folgore Caratese ↑ +0.02 (+0.9%)

Giana Erminio ↑ +0.40 (+13.6%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.