Renate vs Treviso

27 Sep 2026 · 17:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.3 pp

Renate

Treviso

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 38.5% DRAW 31.4% AWAY 30.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 39.2% 2.47 DRAW 31.0% 3.13 AWAY 29.9% 3.24

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Treviso has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Renate Treviso

Shots 10.8 · On target 3.5 Shots 11.0 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Renate Treviso

Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 3.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Renate Treviso

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Renate ↑ +0.25 (+11.3%)

Treviso ↑ +0.04 (+1.3%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.