Desenzano vs Juventus U23

26 Sep 2026 · 17:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +4.0 pp

Desenzano

Juventus U23

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 34.5% DRAW 28.0% AWAY 37.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 38.3% 2.50 DRAW 28.1% 3.40 AWAY 33.6% 2.85

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Juventus U23 relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 37.5% win probability, compared with 33.6% implied by the market. The 4.0 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Juventus U23 has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Desenzano Juventus U23

Shots 6.8 · On target 2.0 Shots 12.0 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Juventus U23, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Desenzano Juventus U23

Shots allowed 14.0 · On target allowed 5.8 Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 4.0

Juventus U23 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Desenzano Juventus U23

The combined recent performance profile favours Juventus U23.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Desenzano ↑ +0.33 (+15.2%)

Juventus U23 ↓ -0.18 (-5.9%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.