Lecco vs US Pergolettese

20 Sep 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.6 pp

Lecco

US Pergolettese

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 46.9% DRAW 28.7% AWAY 24.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 46.3% 2.08 DRAW 28.7% 3.35 AWAY 25.0% 3.85

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Lecco

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Lecco US Pergolettese

Shots 12.0 · On target 5.8 Shots 8.8 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output favours Lecco, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Lecco US Pergolettese

Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 2.5

US Pergolettese has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Lecco US Pergolettese

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Lecco ↑ +0.40 (+23.8%)

US Pergolettese ↓ -1.20 (-23.8%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.