Alcione Milano vs Union Brescia

20 Sep 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.6 pp

Alcione Milano

Union Brescia

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 20.9% DRAW 27.4% AWAY 51.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 22.2% 4.24 DRAW 27.7% 3.40 AWAY 50.1% 1.88

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Union Brescia has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Alcione Milano Union Brescia

Shots 11.3 · On target 3.5 Shots 11.5 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output favours Union Brescia, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Alcione Milano Union Brescia

Shots allowed 16.0 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 3.5

Union Brescia has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Alcione Milano Union Brescia

The combined recent performance profile favours Union Brescia.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Alcione Milano ↑ +0.64 (+17.8%)

Union Brescia ↓ -0.05 (-2.7%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.