AZ Picerno ASD vs Audace Cerignola

26 Sep 2026 · 17:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.6 pp

AZ Picerno ASD

Audace Cerignola

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 35.5% DRAW 27.8% AWAY 36.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 39.0% 2.44 DRAW 28.0% 3.40 AWAY 33.1% 2.88

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Audace Cerignola relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 36.7% win probability, compared with 33.1% implied by the market. The 3.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Audace Cerignola has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

AZ Picerno ASD Audace Cerignola

Shots 8.5 · On target 4.5 Shots 12.0 · On target 5.8

Recent attacking output favours Audace Cerignola, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

AZ Picerno ASD Audace Cerignola

Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 6.0 Shots allowed 6.8 · On target allowed 2.5

Audace Cerignola has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

AZ Picerno ASD Audace Cerignola

The combined recent performance profile favours Audace Cerignola.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

AZ Picerno ASD ↑ +0.13 (+5.6%)

Audace Cerignola ↑ +0.08 (+2.7%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.