Casarano vs Monopoli

27 Sep 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.7 pp

Casarano

Monopoli

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 37.1% DRAW 29.2% AWAY 33.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 38.9% 2.43 DRAW 29.2% 3.24 AWAY 31.9% 2.96

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Monopoli

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Casarano Monopoli

Shots 7.0 · On target 4.3 Shots 7.8 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output favours Casarano, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Casarano Monopoli

Shots allowed 15.8 · On target allowed 6.5 Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 3.3

Monopoli has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Casarano Monopoli

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Casarano ↑ +0.31 (+14.6%)

Monopoli ↓ -0.14 (-4.5%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.