Livorno vs US Pianese

26 Sep 2026 · 17:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.5 pp

Livorno

US Pianese

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 49.8% DRAW 26.8% AWAY 23.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 51.5% 1.84 DRAW 26.6% 3.56 AWAY 21.9% 4.32

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: US Pianese

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Livorno US Pianese

Shots 12.0 · On target 4.3 Shots 16.8 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output favours US Pianese, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Livorno US Pianese

Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 3.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Livorno US Pianese

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Livorno ↑ +0.14 (+8.2%)

US Pianese ↓ -0.19 (-4.1%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.