Perugia vs AC Reggiana

27 Sep 2026 · 17:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.0 pp

Perugia

AC Reggiana

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 25.9% DRAW 28.4% AWAY 45.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 26.8% 3.58 DRAW 28.5% 3.36 AWAY 44.7% 2.14

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

AC Reggiana has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Perugia AC Reggiana

Shots 9.0 · On target 3.0 Shots 9.8 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output favours AC Reggiana, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Perugia AC Reggiana

Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 3.8

AC Reggiana has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Perugia AC Reggiana

The combined recent performance profile favours AC Reggiana.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Perugia ↑ +0.78 (+27.7%)

AC Reggiana ↓ -0.18 (-7.8%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.