Grosseto vs Perugia

20 Sep 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.1 pp

Grosseto

Perugia

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 36.2% DRAW 30.9% AWAY 32.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 35.0% 2.80 DRAW 30.7% 3.20 AWAY 34.3% 2.86

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Grosseto

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Grosseto Perugia

Shots 13.5 · On target 5.8 Shots 9.8 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours Grosseto, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Grosseto Perugia

Shots allowed 15.8 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 4.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Grosseto Perugia

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Grosseto ↑ +0.35 (+14.3%)

Perugia ↑ +0.36 (+14.4%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.