Buzios vs Paraty

01 Oct 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.8 pp

Buzios

Paraty

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 32.6% DRAW 26.3% AWAY 41.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 30.8% 3.10 DRAW 26.6% 3.59 AWAY 42.6% 2.24

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Paraty

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Buzios Paraty

Shots 9.3 · On target 2.0 Shots 11.0 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours Paraty, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Buzios Paraty

Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 5.8

Buzios has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Buzios Paraty

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Buzios ↑ +0.10 (+3.2%)

Paraty ↑ +0.09 (+4.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.