FC Rio de Janeiro vs Barra Mansa

01 Oct 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.7 pp

FC Rio de Janeiro

Barra Mansa

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 30.7% DRAW 25.9% AWAY 43.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 29.0% 3.29 DRAW 26.1% 3.65 AWAY 44.8% 2.13

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Barra Mansa

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

FC Rio de Janeiro Barra Mansa

Shots 6.5 · On target 2.8 Shots 9.0 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours Barra Mansa, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

FC Rio de Janeiro Barra Mansa

Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 3.8

FC Rio de Janeiro has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

FC Rio de Janeiro Barra Mansa

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

FC Rio de Janeiro ↑ +0.19 (+6.0%)

Barra Mansa ↑ +0.03 (+1.3%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.