Cardoso Moreira vs Serra Macaense

01 Oct 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.7 pp

Cardoso Moreira

Serra Macaense

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 48.9% DRAW 25.4% AWAY 25.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 46.2% 2.10 DRAW 26.2% 3.71 AWAY 27.6% 3.52

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Cardoso Moreira relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 48.9% win probability, compared with 46.2% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Cardoso Moreira

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Cardoso Moreira Serra Macaense

Shots 8.8 · On target 3.3 Shots 3.8 · On target 1.0

Recent attacking output favours Cardoso Moreira, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Cardoso Moreira Serra Macaense

Shots allowed 6.8 · On target allowed 2.0 Shots allowed 5.3 · On target allowed 2.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Cardoso Moreira Serra Macaense

The combined recent performance profile favours Cardoso Moreira.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Cardoso Moreira = (0.0%)

Serra Macaense ↑ +0.52 (+17.3%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.