Santa Cruz RJ vs Cardoso Moreira

27 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.7 pp

Santa Cruz RJ

Cardoso Moreira

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 45.7% DRAW 25.6% AWAY 28.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 45.0% 2.09 DRAW 26.1% 3.60 AWAY 28.9% 3.25

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Santa Cruz RJ

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Santa Cruz RJ Cardoso Moreira

Shots 13.0 · On target 5.3 Shots 6.8 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours Santa Cruz RJ, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Santa Cruz RJ Cardoso Moreira

Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 2.3

Cardoso Moreira has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Santa Cruz RJ Cardoso Moreira

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Santa Cruz RJ ↑ +0.18 (+9.5%)

Cardoso Moreira = (0.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.