Friburguense vs Campos RJ

20 Sep 2026 · 19:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.2 pp

Friburguense

Campos RJ

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 50.5% DRAW 24.7% AWAY 24.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 49.3% 1.85 DRAW 25.3% 3.60 AWAY 25.3% 3.60

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Friburguense

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Friburguense Campos RJ

Shots 9.5 · On target 3.8 Shots 11.8 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Friburguense Campos RJ

Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 1.8 Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 4.5

Friburguense has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Friburguense Campos RJ

The combined recent performance profile favours Friburguense.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Friburguense ↑ +0.28 (+17.8%)

Campos RJ ↓ -0.90 (-20.0%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.