Buzios vs Serra Macaense

20 Sep 2026 · 19:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.7 pp

Buzios

Serra Macaense

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 19.8% DRAW 24.4% AWAY 55.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 18.1% 5.01 DRAW 24.0% 3.78 AWAY 57.8% 1.57

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Buzios

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Buzios Serra Macaense

Shots 9.0 · On target 2.8 Shots 1.3 · On target 0.0

Recent attacking output favours Buzios, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Buzios Serra Macaense

Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 4.0 · On target allowed 1.8

Serra Macaense has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Buzios Serra Macaense

The combined recent performance profile favours Buzios.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Buzios ↓ -0.49 (-8.9%)

Serra Macaense ↑ +0.12 (+8.3%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.