Flamengo PI vs Caicara EC

20 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.7 pp

Flamengo PI

Caicara EC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 86.4% DRAW 8.7% AWAY 4.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 84.6% 1.19 DRAW 10.1% 10.00 AWAY 5.3% 19.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Flamengo PI has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Flamengo PI Caicara EC

Shots 6.3 · On target 3.0 Shots 1.5 · On target 1.0

Recent attacking output favours Flamengo PI, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Flamengo PI Caicara EC

Shots allowed 5.5 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 4.5

Flamengo PI has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Flamengo PI Caicara EC

The combined recent performance profile favours Flamengo PI.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Flamengo PI ↑ +0.04 (+3.1%)

Caicara EC ↑ +3.00 (+18.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.