Sestao River vs Atletico Astorga

26 Sep 2026 · 18:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.7 pp

Sestao River

Atletico Astorga

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 53.0% DRAW 26.5% AWAY 20.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 52.3% 1.79 DRAW 26.7% 3.50 AWAY 21.0% 4.46

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Sestao River

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sestao River Atletico Astorga

Shots 14.0 · On target 4.5 Shots 9.5 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Sestao River, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sestao River Atletico Astorga

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 3.8

Atletico Astorga has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sestao River Atletico Astorga

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Sestao River ↑ +0.22 (+13.9%)

Atletico Astorga ↓ -1.04 (-18.9%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.