Independiente Petrolero vs Real Tomayapo

22 Sep 2026 · 02:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.5 pp

Independiente Petrolero

Real Tomayapo

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 50.7% DRAW 24.1% AWAY 25.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 53.1% 1.80 DRAW 24.2% 3.95 AWAY 22.8% 4.20

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Real Tomayapo relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 25.3% win probability, compared with 22.8% implied by the market. The 2.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Real Tomayapo

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Independiente Petrolero Real Tomayapo

Shots 11.8 · On target 3.8 Shots 11.5 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Independiente Petrolero Real Tomayapo

Shots allowed 21.3 · On target allowed 8.0 Shots allowed 17.0 · On target allowed 3.8

Real Tomayapo has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Independiente Petrolero Real Tomayapo

The combined recent performance profile favours Real Tomayapo.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Independiente Petrolero ↑ +0.05 (+2.9%)

Real Tomayapo ↑ +0.28 (+7.2%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.