The Strongest vs Bolivar

20 Sep 2026 · 23:15

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.4 pp

The Strongest

Bolivar

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 26.9% DRAW 25.2% AWAY 47.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 28.6% 3.26 DRAW 25.9% 3.60 AWAY 45.5% 2.05

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Bolivar has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

The Strongest Bolivar

Shots 21.8 · On target 8.0 Shots 24.0 · On target 8.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

The Strongest Bolivar

Shots allowed 16.3 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 3.8

Bolivar has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

The Strongest Bolivar

The combined recent performance profile favours Bolivar.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

The Strongest ↑ +0.42 (+14.8%)

Bolivar ↓ -0.05 (-2.4%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.