Oriente Petrolero vs The Strongest

01 Oct 2026 · 02:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.5 pp

Oriente Petrolero

The Strongest

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 44.0% DRAW 25.0% AWAY 31.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 47.3% 2.25 DRAW 25.2% 4.22 AWAY 27.5% 3.88

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for The Strongest relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 31.0% win probability, compared with 27.5% implied by the market. The 3.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

The Strongest has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Oriente Petrolero The Strongest

Shots 11.8 · On target 4.3 Shots 18.5 · On target 7.8

Recent attacking output favours The Strongest, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Oriente Petrolero The Strongest

Shots allowed 14.0 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 4.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Oriente Petrolero The Strongest

The combined recent performance profile favours The Strongest.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Oriente Petrolero ↓ -0.05 (-2.2%)

The Strongest ↑ +1.38 (+55.0%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.