Real Tomayapo vs Nacional Potosi

01 Oct 2026 · 00:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.9 pp

Real Tomayapo

Nacional Potosi

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 41.3% DRAW 23.6% AWAY 35.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 37.3% 2.54 DRAW 24.4% 3.89 AWAY 38.2% 2.49

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Real Tomayapo relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 41.3% win probability, compared with 37.3% implied by the market. The 3.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Real Tomayapo has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Real Tomayapo Nacional Potosi

Shots 15.3 · On target 5.8 Shots 11.8 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output favours Real Tomayapo, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Real Tomayapo Nacional Potosi

Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 14.5 · On target allowed 6.0

Real Tomayapo has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Real Tomayapo Nacional Potosi

The combined recent performance profile favours Real Tomayapo.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Real Tomayapo = (0.0%)

Nacional Potosi ↑ +0.70 (+26.9%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.